Election 24 – sowing the seeds of change

General elections come around every 4/5 years. Some are routine, validating the dominant forces in the country, some produce unexpected results (Heath’s and Major’s unlikely wins in 1970 and 1992 respectively).

Others are seismic, with tectonic plates moving by the collective will of the people, when the times really are a-changing. Thatcher’s absolute sea change in 1979 and Blair’s ruthless rout in 1997.

This election is billed as a similar monumental moment in the nation’s story. It comes amid the lines being dramatically redrawn in France, with their own election this weekend and the pending showdown in America in November.

The story of this election is less about the widely anticipated Labour victory, with a deeply red tidal wave flushing away the stale Conservative administration. It’s more about the splintered state of our politics, where the status quo will no longer do.

The perennial bronze medalists in the Liberal Democrat Party have played a bold game, attracting coverage by their hitherto bland leader Ed Davey aping everyone’s embarrassing uncle. The strategy of staged pratfalls has guaranteed coverage, whilst the busy deputies have capitalised in debates and slipped those key messages in.

The SNP, withering before our eyes all year, have benefited from the passionate but measured tones of their Westminster leader Steven Flynn. Effortlessly undercutting the star turns, if he hasn’t stopped the rot north of the border, he can’t be blamed.

The Greens have played their hand as well as they can, with feisty Carla Denyer and less charismatic Adrian Ramsay getting everyone nodding in agreement with the thrust of their philosophy, but baulking at the price to be paid. The party do seem destined to be Cassandra when the final analysis is made. They can’t shift the dial in this short-termism age.

The blue touchpaper has been truly lit by Reform UK. For the first time in living memory (if ever) the right is the political flank that has been split. With consequences for the Tories that range from generational collapse to absolute oblivion.

Whilst the usual tired voices scream ‘racist’ and other blunt words of abuse, the undercurrent that Nigel Farage has tapped into is anything but.

You don’t get a nation to collectively vote on something as momentous as Brexit by simply hollering dog whistle divisive messages. There is not enough prejudicial gunpowder in the British psyche to propel a vicious splinter group to victory. These are the lessons that the political establishment have still not learnt following the EU referendum.

The distance between the politicians and the public remains huge. They really just don’t get it. They don’t get any of it. Nobody expects the Westminster posse to understand the lot of the masses, but we do expect some notion that they are paying attention.

Rishi Sunak repeatedly talks about his “plan”. The man who said there was nothing he could do about inflation when it was going up now wants to take credit for it coming down. He has been remarkably isolated during this campaign. Where is the Chancellor? The Foreign Secretary? It defies belief that the cabinet should be so absent from an election campaign; admittedly the ship has been slowly sinking since Partygate, so the rats have had time to slink away.

Keir Starmer has stuck so rigidly to his script and the carefully controlled events that the Ming vase is really in no peril at all. He has played the election so safe that nobody is buzzed to see him timidly inching his way towards Number 10. The cracks in the Labour alliance will surely begin as soon as he takes office, with Angela and her red brigade anxious to see the change that has not dared speak its name during the campaign, finally unleashed.

The uncomfortable truth for all parties is the Nigel Farage is absolutely right about the impact of immigration into the UK. Not the desperately sad victims who find themselves clinging to the boats across the English Channel. Look to the legitimate migrants who have come to the UK, with work permits and visas in pocket.

When millions more people join the population – and public services are not swelled to meet the increased demand, there will be chaos. And resentment. Intolerable waiting times, housing costs spiralling, lack of dental and GP availability. Choking transport and wage stagnation.

It is not the fault of the migrants. Who can blame them for wishing to provide a better life for themselves and their families by coming here? I would. It’s not their fault.

The fault lies with successive governments response (or lack of) to the influx of cheap foreign labour. Cameron, May et al who cut the public service budgets (remember, “we’re all in this together”), so there was no chance that services could keep pace with the increased population. And it’s only got worse as Tory Time goes on.

What will change with Keir Starmer’s government? Very little I suspect. The revolving door of stuffed suits will admit the next crop of witless wonders.

But the residue from this election will prove to be monumental, albeit in a slow-burning way. The percentage drop in support for the main parties – which nevertheless brings the lion’s share of seats in parliament – will be intolerable.

In the 2015 election, 16% of the electorate voted for UKIP and the Green Party (5 million votes in total) with the result they got 1 MP each. The Labour party got 9 million votes and ended up with 232 MPs.

Our first-past-the-post system delivers results that reinforce the status quo. Even with the expected rout of the Tories this time around, they will still likely get 2^nd place.

However, it’s worth remembering the projected outcome in 2015 spooked David Cameron enough to promise the EU referendum to shore up his Eurosceptic voter base. That was in the manifesto and no doubt contributed to his victory. Smugly he called the referendum, anticipating a Remain vote and another full term in Number 10. And we all know how that ended.

That’s why every vote for Reform, the Greens, anyone but the two big parties has the potential to cause a shift in the way we do things. Pressure builds from the bottom until those at the top can no longer ignore the will of the people.

Naive? I don’t think so. Watch the numbers of the votes case vs numbers of seats returned after this week’s vote. Not overnight, but by stealth change – real change – can happen.

Your servant

MC